The SAS proposals for participation in FP6 projects
are listed in blocks according to the FP6 priority theme structure

FP6 priority
1.1.6   Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems
Title of the proposal

Hydrologic scenarios for the integratedManagement of the quantity and quality of water resources

Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrology
Racianska 75, 838 11 Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Dr. Pavla PEKAROVA, Ph.D.
+421 2 44 259 311

Research subject for a potential FP6 project

The project aims to develop scenarios of possible long term changes of the hydrologic regime of river runoff quantity and quality, especially in those regions in Slovakia (Europe) where the temporal and spatial redistribution of the surface water resources is seen as a prerequisite for their integrated development in the future and the design and operation of water resources systems. These scenarios will be based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of surface water resources in past century to enable a better assessment of the vulnerability and risks in future surface water resources development scenarios, on regional analysis of the relation between NAO and SO series, water quantity, quality and runoff forming factors. The adaptation of different simulation techniques is foreseen for hydrologic scenario development and on the use of stochastic and deterministic simulation methods to assess possible runoff quantity and quality changes according to different scenarios in the development of runoff generating conditions.The final outcome of the project is the development of a stochastic-deterministic model (classical time series analysis, Box-Jenkins ARMA, ARIMA, SARIMA models) of yearly as well as monthly discharge forecast for main European rivers, e.g. Danube, Rhine, Mainz, Tizsa, Elbe, Neva, Goeta, in order to arrive at a better quantification of uncertainties in the integrated development of surface water resources in those regions.

Recent international cooperation of the research team

Members of the research team participate in following international projects:
Regional Co-operation of the Danube Countries in Hydrology in Frame of IHP UNESCO;
Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data (FRIEND);
European Reference Basins (ERB).

Proposerīs relevant publications related to the research subject

Svoboda, A., Pekarova, P., Miklanek, P.: Flood Hydrology of Danube between Devin and Nagymaros. Publication of the Slovak Committee for Hydrology No.5, SVH a IH SAV, 2000, 97.
Pekarova, P., Pekar, J.: Long-Term Runoff Analysis of Slovak Rivers. XXth Conference of the Danubian Countries on Hydrological Forecasting, SHMI Bratislava, 2000, 8.
Pekarova, P., Pekar, J.: The Impact of Land Use on Stream Water Quality in Slovakia. Journal of Hydrology 180, 1996, 333-350.
Pekarova, P., Pekar, J.: The chemical regime and interaction of surface and groundwater in Small Carpathian region. EKOLOGIA, Vol. 17, 4, 391-401, 1998.
Pekarova, P., Miklanek, P., Konicek, A., Pekar, J.: Water Quality in Experimental Basins. Publ. SVH No. 4.(ISBN 80-967808-8-3), IH SAS, 1999, 96 pp.
Pekarova, P.: Streamflow fluctuations in Europe since the beginning of the eighteen century. in press